Why is it getting better? US / world

[Steam Flyer]

Debt and deficits, for a country that prints its own money is a political construct, not an economic one.

Governments are almost always in the red with talk of impending financial crisis. A crisis that never seems to come.

From an economic perspective, quantitative easing is easy and seemingly victimless. Keynes would even have you believe that it will stimulate business and you can therefore pay it back with the extra tax revenue, but I have never seen it despite several decades of unbalanced spending. 

As long as all the interest cost went back to domestic lenders one could make the case that it is largely a non-issue domestically but eventually, even suddenly, your currency has to take a hit and that costs everyone though it encourages domestic manufacturing over imports. 

In my heart and head I believe it is wrong to mortgage our future no matter the various political party's views.

Well, the real issue is the underlying value of our currency. These days, the money supply is complicated.

But the money is basically a claim on the whole nation's wealth. That's a lot. But it's not true that it's always some Chicken Little alarming about a crisis that never comes. The USA has had monetary crises in the past. Other countries have had much MUCH worse ones. How bad does it have to get before people believe in it? Well, once we have runaway inflation, we then have the opposite problem, people have to gain confidence in their money before it will stop.

One of the problems with money is that it is a dynamically UNstable system. And it's also true that if you're borrowing a dollar to spend 25c on interest on the money you already borrowed, and another 25c on useless bullshit, and you can't convince the household that you need to at least slow down on the borrowing, then you're headed off a cliff.

- DSK

 

[RobG]

I think this is an example of the most insidious and selfish behavior possible.

You are lumping the risks of ALL age groups, into one, homogenous group.
This is, of course, wildly inaccurate.

"inaccurate" is a non sequitur, incorrect would be grammatically correct. Maybe you're just being very clever since the statement "lumping the risks of ALL age groups, into one, homogenous group" is itself is wildly inaccurate.

After all this time, you either haven't learned a thing about virus control or are deliberately misrepresenting the purpose of mitigation measures to suit your discredited agenda.

So I'll tell you yet again why the same measures are imposed on everyone, not just the most vulnerable.

The intention is to stop the spread of the disease, which means everyone restricting movement, physical distancing, practicing good hygiene, wearing masks where physical distancing can't be implemented, etc. The fact that a 20 something likely won't have serious consequences from Covid-19 isn't the reason they are included in the above, it's to stop them spreading the disease to others, increasing the risk for the vulnerable.

Mitigation measures have been proven time and time again to work, as Australia and New Zealand (and many other countries) have shown. When practiced correctly they can virtually eliminate virus spread so that life returns to "normal". The alternative is never ending waves of infections and deaths.

Mitigation measures put small but entirely tolerable burden on people for the benefit of everyone. It also means putting the welfare of others above your own self–interest, perhaps that's why you don't agree with it.

Your "solution" of isolating the vulnerable for some indefinite period has been rejected by every single nation on earth. Quite apart from being highly discriminatory, it's impractical and simply doesn't work. For you to keep putting it forward shows you just can't accept reasoned argument to the contrary. You just keep repeating the same rubbish ad nausium, so others will keep refuting it at the same rate.

 

[RobG]

From an economic perspective, quantitative easing is easy and seemingly victimless. Keynes would even have you believe that it will stimulate business and you can therefore pay it back with the extra tax revenue, but I have never seen it despite several decades of unbalanced spending. 

As long as all the interest cost went back to domestic lenders one could make the case that it is largely a non-issue domestically but eventually, even suddenly, your currency has to take a hit and that costs everyone though it encourages domestic manufacturing over imports.

But if everyone is doing it, the effect on an individual currency is limited. The US created $3 trillion from March to November 2020. That money has gone almost exclusively to the top end of town, so even though unemployment remains at historic highs, the share market is booming while executive salaries have exploded.

The Walton family, owners of Walmart, has increased its wealth by $50 billion during the pandemic, yet the US senate will likely continue to block an increase of the minimum wage from $7.50 per hour.  Even some Democrat senators oppose the move. The effect in the US is very similar to what the CCP is doing in China: ensuring an impoverished rural class as cheap labour for its manufacturing sector so it can continue to flood the world with very cheap products, destroying the manufacturing bases of competing countries. Only in the US the money is used to buy cheap Chinese products with the leftover being hoarded by the wealthy. The poor are reduced to below poverty wages or even lower unemployment benefits.

 

[Ease the sheet.]

But if everyone is doing it, the effect on an individual currency is limited. The US created $3 trillion from March to November 2020. That money has gone almost exclusively to the top end of town, so even though unemployment remains at historic highs, the share market is booming while executive salaries have exploded.

The Walton family, owners of Walmart, has increased its wealth by $50 billion during the pandemic, yet the US senate will likely continue to block an increase of the minimum wage from $7.50 per hour.  Even some Democrat senators oppose the move. The effect in the US is very similar to what the CCP is doing in China: ensuring an impoverished rural class as cheap labour for its manufacturing sector so it can continue to flood the world with very cheap products, destroying the manufacturing bases of competing countries. Only in the US the money is used to buy cheap Chinese products with the leftover being hoarded by the wealthy. The poor are reduced to below poverty wages or even lower unemployment benefits.

Great distinction.

The issue isn't expanding the money supply.

It's what the money gets spent on and where it goes.

 

[RobG]

Great distinction.

The issue isn't expanding the money supply.

It's what the money gets spent on and where it goes.

Maybe the USD is being propped up by foreign interests buying into the buoyant US stock market. That will only last as long as the US maintains its technological lead, which is seriously under threat. Take away Google, Amazon, Facebook and Tesla and what happens to US tech stocks? Where will the next big thing come from? If it's not the US, look out.

 

[Ncik]

I think this is an example of the most insidious and selfish behavior possible. As a 40 something with a pre-existing condition that may make me susceptible to covid, I am appreciative of the communities sacrifices for all members.

You are lumping the risks of ALL age groups, into one, homogenous group.
This is, of course, wildly inaccurate.

The CDC shows the risks to young people (35 and under) is 1000% LESS than 65+. Risk of death, true. Risks to society, false.

But, 'lockdowns' and heavy-handed policy, completely ignores the science.
It harms all people, equally. As does a rampant virus.

Old people should be smart enough to stay inside for 1-2 years. WTF! hahahaah, gold. What about their businesses, their grand-kids, their jobs?
The rest of society should go about its business once we realized it was, effectively, no risk to them.

(for people 65, of course you're aware, Covid is LESS deadly than the common flu) Cite. Even if correct, covid is much more contagious, so it'll have a bigger impact, as we have witnessed over the last 12 months in some countries. Need I post another CDC excess death graph?
 

We didn't do that. We followed voodoo/populist/fake science, and we locked up healthy people - the people with no risk. For a short period of time (relatively).
This has the counter affect, that when we 'unlock' those people... they catch the virus.  That's not true in my community? Cite. Plus you're ignoring the fact that lock-downs are only part of the mitigation strategy. Border restrictions, quarantine, masks, hygiene need to be effective also.
So, we start to falsely equate that as proof that 'lockdowns work, see!'

It's sort of like AIDS, if our response was to cut off everyone's dicks, instead of helping those at risk make better & safer decisions. Stop being ridiculous and melodramatic. Cutting off dicks is equivalent to suffocating people to stop them breathing out the virus. For viruses, masks are a much more palatable measure, similar to the use of condoms to reduce the risks of AIDS spreading.

We bit our nose, to spite our face. 
And the 1st world continues to cheer wildly for this plan.

Again, you are being stupid, I just can't tell if it is a deliberate act or you're actually stupid.

 

[Matagi]

Again, you are being stupid, I just can't tell if it is a deliberate act or you're actually stupid.

Both. It's the Dunning-Kruger effect in full display.

// It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from people's inability to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their level of competence.

Colloquially, people experiencing this bias are said to be "on Mount Stupid".//

 

[Varan]

metacognition, now that's a bullshit word.

 

[Matagi]

Bullshit, now that's a metacognitive word.

 

[BlatantEcho]

Posting here is like being in the middle of a flat earther convention.
You guys are just so convinced you're right - just badly ignoring all the data and science that says 'the earth is round'

The data appears, pretty convincingly at this point - that policy, mandates, and behavior - have no correlation with cases.

It's just there, plane as day.
The curves for California, Arizona and Nevada, are almost identical.  Yet they had completely different ... everything.



Our how about southern states... same situation.  Totally different responses, mandates, policies...
Charts are almost identical.



or look inside just...Southern California. Different policies, different dates... same curves



At a *certain* point - you guys have to walk away from your dogma - and simply look at science and/or data.
Seriously.

After 14 months of this...  you guys, at *some* point - need to look around and say:  'huh, yeah, where is the correlation between policy/mandates/masks/lockdown and outcomes?'
At *some* point, people need to engage their brains.  

Seriously, this is embarrassing that groupthink prevents anyone from thinking critically or objectively.

 

[Steam Flyer]

...

At *some* point, people need to engage their brains.  

...

Look in the mirror, boy

It's pretty obvious that you did not get stellar grades in math class. Is it too late to send you back?

- DSK

 

[Lark]

Further proof things are improving in the US:   Nitrile exam gloves and other PPE are  now coming off backorder from the medical wholesalers.  Previously facsimiles of these products have been available on amazon but the pedigree stuff has been hit and miss for about a year.   They would often post little yellow (allocation) or red (backorder) trucks by half the products and the remainder would be several times pre CoViD prices.    I don't understand why sterile surgery gloves were also affected.   

 

[Lark]

Posting here is like being in the middle of a flat earther convention.
You guys are just so convinced you're right - just badly ignoring all the data and science that says 'the earth is round'

The data appears, pretty convincingly at this point - that policy, mandates, and behavior - have no correlation with cases.

It's just there, plane as day.
The curves for California, Arizona and Nevada, are almost identical.  Yet they had completely different ... everything.

View attachment 431165

Our how about southern states... same situation.  Totally different responses, mandates, policies...
Charts are almost identical.

View attachment 431166

or look inside just...Southern California. Different policies, different dates... same curves

View attachment 431167

At a *certain* point - you guys have to walk away from your dogma - and simply look at science and/or data.
Seriously.

After 14 months of this...  you guys, at *some* point - need to look around and say:  'huh, yeah, where is the correlation between policy/mandates/masks/lockdown and outcomes?'
At *some* point, people need to engage their brains.  

Seriously, this is embarrassing that groupthink prevents anyone from thinking critically or objectively.

Looking at a list of restrictions seems useless since they were applied in different ways and enforced by whim.    Mask mandates didn't count in red areas.   Republicans knew it was a liberal conspiracy interfering with their right  to infect their neighbors.   Outdoor dining open was of little value in areas where humans aren't meant to be outside without air conditioned clothing.   Even if customers wanted to brave the sun the only spot might be the parking space by the dumpster.   I'm not a big fan of most restrictions states chose, there was certainly a lot of silliness and stupidity.   Proven risks like church services were left open with the promise of divine protection (as long as you worshiped under the right brand).    Low risk safety valves for cabin fever like parks and trails were closed in many areas.   County fairs were often allowed since governments didn't want to hurt their own revenue.   Government needed to make and adjust recommendations by risk / benefit equations.   They needed to compensate the people whose livelihood they were screwing with targeted payments instead of throwing cash at the masses.   People necessary to the functioning of society had to risk illness while the expendable people with unimportant jobs got a CoViD vacation. 

 

[jorge]

Estimated world population;       7.000.000.000
Corona virus cases:                               109.345.397       1,56%     
Deaths:                                                            2.409.966       0.03%
What pandemic are we talking about? It's an inmune system disease. Those with weak inmune system are prone to get the worst part. It's a very contagious flu. Like most of flu's, it causes pneumonia, some very soft, some moderate and some severe. It came here to stay. Vaccines will be temporary solution, every year the virus will mute. The problem is it has affected more the 1rst world population than the rest of the world. Much more than this figures die per year of other diseases, and more will die due to lack of attention. It's criminal what has been done. The world as we know it has been destroyed... by whom? for what? I do not know. I don´t mean to argue with anyone, each one of us has his own opinion, and very valid of course. This is mine.
 I'm in the risk group, cause of my age, and 40% of breathing restriction due to right diafragm paralysis. Was lockdown for a month. When started working at the second week caught the damn bug ,15 days, fever (not too much), but felt like a freight train and a couple of trucks rolled over me, two days without sleeping cause of a continuos cough, didn´t go to hospital. I can´t tell how I caught the bug. Took all measures that are circling around. Where i work no one else caught it.  One of my kids caught it too, (doesn't live with me) sour throat, lack of taste for a day and that was it. I'm working since august.The point is that if tomorrow i die from a heart attack or stroke they will blame the virus...

PD figures perhaps are not exact, wrote this a couple of weeks ago on another thread.

PPDD I do not trust the vaccines, specially Pfizer and Moderna, the one that messes with Arn... I give a damn,. but my concern is for younger people, what could happen in three or four years time.

PPPDDD I don´t mean to argue with anyone, each one of us has his own opinion, and very valid of course. This is mine... if anyone cares.

 

[Lark]

If this killed a large percent like plague, or just killed three percent of healthy adults that got sick like 1918-1919 flu, it would have been a very different experience.   Spread would have been lightning fast with global travel.   WW I troop movements were nothing compared to slow days in 2019 at the world’s airports.   Precautions could have been limited to a few months quarantine and been meaningful.  Chinese or the initial European shutdowns might have made sense.

At least the carnage would have been brief instead of three slow waves in the steam transport era or decades in the era of cogs and navas.     More deaths in a smaller window ironically would have caused less economic disruption.  After WWI people were used to large numbers of friends, family and associates randomly dying.  Now we are so safety conscious an airplane crash seems like a big deal.   If two crash the plane is grounded.    If a person even comes close to death in a construction accident inspectors are all over the place looking for reasons.   1200 died building the transcontinental railroad, 1000 digging the Erie Canal.    Even though there are a lot more humans, we value our lives more now.   Total number of deaths are higher but a much lower percent is tolerable.

I’ll bite, @jorge.   What’s Arn?   Why is a temporary work order (mRNA) more dangerous then an old fashioned attenuated vaccine,  killed vaccine or even a modern subunit vaccine?

 

[Ease the sheet.]

If this killed a large percent like plague, or just killed three percent of healthy adults that got sick like 1918-1919 flu, it would have been a very different experience.   Spread would have been lightning fast with global travel.   WW I troop movements were nothing compared to slow days in 2019 at the world’s airports.   Precautions could have been limited to a few months quarantine and been meaningful.  Chinese or the initial European shutdowns might have made sense.

At least the carnage would have been brief instead of three slow waves in the steam transport era or decades in the era of cogs and navas.     More deaths in a smaller window ironically would have caused less economic disruption.  After WWI people were used to large numbers of friends, family and associates randomly dying.  Now we are so safety conscious an airplane crash seems like a big deal.   If two crash the plane is grounded.    If a person even comes close to death in a construction accident inspectors are all over the place looking for reasons.   1200 died building the transcontinental railroad, 1000 digging the Erie Canal.    Even though there are a lot more humans, we value our lives more now.   Total number of deaths are higher but a much lower percent is tolerable.

I’ll bite, @jorge.   What’s Arn?   Why is a temporary work order (mRNA) more dangerous then an old fashioned attenuated vaccine,  killed vaccine or even a modern subunit vaccine?

Covid does kill around 3% of confirmed cases......

 

[12 metre]

Covid does kill around 3% of confirmed cases......

He should have said, or meant to have said, 3% of the world population: https://www.biospace.com/article/compare-1918-spanish-influenza-pandemic-versus-covid-19/#:~:text=Of course%2C the world population,million figure suggest about 1%.

The article implies a 10% IFR (500M infected, 50M deaths) for the Spanish Flu at the time.

World population in 1918 was 1.8B.  In 2020 it is 7.8B. 

So based on the above world population numbers, equivalent numbers today would be 2.2B infected and 220M deaths

 

[BlatantEcho]

Covid does kill around 3% of confirmed cases......

:wacko:     

This is the flat earther bullshit on full public display.
You simply made up a number.

The IFR of Covid is *heavily* age dependent.

CDC IFR Estimates by Age Group:
0-19 years:     .003%
20-49 years:   .02%
50-69 years:   .5%
70+ years:      5.4%

Source CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Anyone under age 50, Covid is wildly less deadly then the flu.
Anyone 50-70, Covid is slightly more risky than flu.
Anyone over 70, Covid is indeed a problem.

The hysteria here is just unbelievable.

 

[EYESAILOR]

Sadly , it’s not just the death rate.  It’s the long term damage to the vascular system caused by CV19 for younger people that also worries us.  
 

Take care . 

 

[Lark]

Sadly , it’s not just the death rate.  It’s the long term damage to the vascular system caused by CV19 for younger people that also worries us.  
 

Take care . 

An excellent point hard to quantify.    The long delay between onset and complication, and troubling excess deaths are unique from past plagues.    
@12 metre    Thanks for the correction.   The hour was late and devices should have been off.

@BlatantEcho has a point.    I was listening to Gov DeWine’s CoViD update while working late Thursday.   He said 40% of Ohio fatalities were in nursing homes, so he was hopeful early vaccine efforts would make a quick difference.     Of course the other 60% were not,    Half a percent of people 50-59 is still significantly more then die of the flu in that age group.   Flu also likes to kill the old and immunosuppressed.  It’s just not as good at it.   CDC lists CFR at 8.2  per 100,000 for people 50-64 years old. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html