Why Trump Will Win in 2020

[Jules]

I know almost no one will read this post in its entirety but you won't see where I'm coming from unless you do.  So here goes.

I was at an event last night.  Mostly well--heeled locals and a good number of them Democrat-leaning.  Sitting next to me at my table was a man who has been canvassing for the Democrats.  He started talking up Bloomberg.  The others at the table seemed equally excited.  

Then it hit me. 

The Democratic party is not split between Progressives and Moderates, it's split between haves and have-nots.  And those two factions just cannot relate.  The haves think the have-nots are being selfish supporting Bernie.  The have-nots think the haves are trying to strong-arm them into voting moderate, which to them means their world will never get better.

Bernie was in a virtual tie for first in Iowa.  And he's leading the NH polls right now.  Which makes him the early front runner. 

In 2016, Bernie supporters realized, fairly late in the campaign, the DNC and the media threw their support to Clinton, and strongly influenced the outcome.  Many were pissed and either went for Trump or someone else or didn't vote.  And Trump won.

This time Bernie supporters already have seen the DNC and the media criticize the front runner, something that I can't remember ever happening within the Democratic party.  Rather than focusing on the strong support Bernie is receiving, they are trying to tear it down.  And Bernie supporters are already pissed.

If this continues - Bernie continues with strong showings and the DNC and media continue to tear him down - it's a virtual certainty the Dems will be so divided that they have no chance of winning.

Republicans have shown they are completely united in keeping the Dems out of office.  But the Dems are too idealistic to do the same.  And Trump is reelected.

 

[Olsonist]

I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary and I voted for Hillary in the general. I've never met a Bernie supporter who voted for Shitstain. IRL, I knew a passionate Bernie chick who voted for Stein but that's pretty much it. I probably knew Bernie supporters who sat out the election. There was a lot of Russian and Republican (is there a difference?) trolling and misinformation going on and it's hard to sift that out. But that was my experience. Here is a poll saying 12% of Bernie voters voted for Shitstain:

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

Again, I don't buy that because it doesn't match my experience IRL AND there was a lot of trolling going on. Hi @TMSAIL!

As to your point about the tension between Progressives and Centrists, I think you're right. Krugman mockingly calls Centrists the Very Serious People. A centrist friend of mine said it was very important to re-elect Feinstein. Because? Because accomplishments (which?) and seniority (duh).

That said, 2020 is not 2016. I'll support any Democrat coming out of the primary. I'll support Bernie. I'll support Bloomberg (who has already said he'll support Bernie). I'll support Klobuchar, although I had to look up how to spell her name. I'll support Warren. I'll support Buttigieg. If Tulsi comes out of the Republican primary, I'll give her consideration. Hi @Plenipotentiary Tom!

As you pointed out, I'm also certain that our elk will support their boy Shitstain. They'll just troll about what a difficult decision it is and then blame their vote on the Democrats. Hi @Shootist Jeff!

 

[SloopJonB]

I know almost no one will read this post in its entirety but you won't see where I'm coming from unless you do.  So here goes.

I was at an event last night.  Mostly well--heeled locals and a good number of them Democrat-leaning.  Sitting next to me at my table was a man who has been canvassing for the Democrats.  He started talking up Bloomberg.  The others at the table seemed equally excited.  

Then it hit me. 

The Democratic party is not split between Progressives and Moderates, it's split between haves and have-nots.  And those two factions just cannot relate.  The haves think the have-nots are being selfish supporting Bernie.  The have-nots think the haves are trying to strong-arm them into voting moderate, which to them means their world will never get better.

Yep but I don't agree it's the have's & have nots.

It's the electable and the unelectable.

I'll let you decide who's who.

Anywhere else Bernie would have no problem getting elected but not in Amerika.

Just look at what is called "Radical Left" in the States - Hillary FFS. The American political spectrum has become so right shifted that no-one in favour of social programs can get elected - they're just commies.

It was inevitable but I sure never thought I'd see it in my lifetime - I think America is done - over. Now there's only the long slow decline while China takes over.

 

[billy backstay]

I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary and I voted for Hillary in the general. I've never met a Bernie supporter who voted for Shitstain. IRL, I knew a passionate Bernie chick who voted for Stein but that's pretty much it. I probably knew Bernie supporters who sat out the election. There was a lot of Russian and Republican (is there a difference?) trolling and misinformation going on and it's hard to sift that out. But that was my experience. Here is a poll saying 12% of Bernie voters voted for Shitstain:

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

Again, I don't buy that because it doesn't match my experience IRL AND there was a lot of trolling going on. Hi @TMSAIL!

As to your point about the tension between Progressives and Centrists, I think you're right. Krugman mockingly calls Centrists the Very Serious People. A centrist friend of mine said it was very important to re-elect Feinstein. Because? Because accomplishments (which?) and seniority.

That said, 2020 is not 2016. I'll support any Democrat coming out of the primary. I'll support Bernie. I'll support Bloomberg (who has already said he'll support Bernie). I'll support Klobuchar, although I had to look up how to spell her name. I'll support Warren. I'll support Buttigieg.

I'm also certain that our elk will support their boy Shitstain. They'll just troll about what a difficult decision it is and blame their vote on the Democrats. Hi @Shootist Jeff!

Like Sol said in another thread, I will vote for a flaming bag of dog-shit, over Trumplestiltskin!!

 

[billy backstay]

Yep but I don't agree it's the have's & have nots.

It's the electable and the unelectable.

I'll let you decide who's who.

Anywhere else Bernie would have no problem getting elected but not in Amerika.

Just look at what is called "Radical Left" in the States - Hillary FFS. The American political spectrum has become so right shifted that no-one in favour of social programs can get elected - they're just commies.

It was inevitable but I sure never thought I'd see it in my lifetime - I think America is done - over. Now there's only the long slow decline while China takes over.

I have been saying just that for the last year or so...  The party is over, except for cleaning up the detritus and debris,  on the morning after...

 

[Olsonist]

Like Sol said in another thread, I will vote for a flaming bag of dog-shit, over Trumplestiltskin!!

Our elk will also vote for a flaming bag of dog-shit over their boy Shitstain unless that flaming bag of dog-shit is a Democrat. Then there will be much sturm und drang followed by a heavy heart.

 

[Lark]

Not far off.   Have and have nots.  So called Wall Street vs mainstreet.   The Democrat party is as beholden to special interests as the Republican.      Both are marionettes with slightly different costumes.   The Republicans rule by fear, hatred and division.   The a Democrat’s rule by bread and circuses.    I’m biased by my location.   If Ohio truly is a swing state, and if the economy doesn’t crash his year, the Democrats are fucked.    Whichever drink we chose, the future looks jaundiced.

 

[Fakenews]

Meanwhile Laura Loomer edges closer to becoming the GOP candidate for Congress.

America is well and truly fucked and just wait till brown and black people figure that out.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/laura-loomer-trumpy-bigot-embraced-by-the-florida-gop-could-actually-get-to-congress?ref=scroll?ref=home

 

[Sol Rosenberg]

The Most Honest Man in the GOP will win in 2020 because he is the incumbent. They don’t get beaten. 
 

This will be assisted by the democRATS nominating the only person in their party (or perhaps even someone NOT in it) who could not beat Trump. We won’t know who that worst person is until the DemocRATS nominate him or her, at which point the people who do not support Trump, really, will shrug their shoulders and vote for him again. 

 

[SloopJonB]

The Most Honest Man in the GOP will win in 2020 because he is the incumbent. They don’t get beaten.

Tell that to Ford, Carter and Bush the Greater.

 

[Sol Rosenberg]

Tell that to Ford, Carter and Bush the Greater.

I did not know that. Thanks for the correction. 

 

[SloopJonB]

Holy Shit Sol!

And you're one of the smart ones.

Now I'm really depressed.

 

[Mrleft8]

I did not know that. Thanks for the correction. 

Of course you knew that. You're just playing Floriduh man for a day.

 

[BeSafe]

As I've listened to the various pollsters pontificate, I've changed my opinion on Bernie.

I think he can win. I think Bernie can beat Trump one on one.  I think the "socialist" label has more power in abstract than in person.

Trump loves labeling people.  And he's really good at it.  From here until November, every time Bloomberg stands in front of a podium, people are going to be looking for a box.  And what's more, the MEDIA will be talking about a box.  Fauxcahaunts, Sleepy Joe.. stupid nicknames meant to detract from the person and make them less impressive but to also give the media something to talk about.  Every time Biden has a gaff or loss of thought, he's gonna get pounded.

The problem (for Trump) is that Bernie is largely immune to that attack.  Trump says he's a socialist - yea.. BERNIE says he's a socialist.  Bernie's old?  He's Trumps age. His heart?  Anyone REALLY want to put Trump's medical records up against Bernies?

What Bernie has that armors him against Trump is sincerity.  He's got a 50 year record of saying the same thing.  He's not a flip flopper.  He's not really a particularly good politician.  People inside the beltway DON'T like him.  Hillary wasn't lying.

So.. Trump's going to run on the economy.  He's not going to get any democrats.  That's foregone.  He's going to get a lot of republicans.  That's foregone.  But what about the disaffected 'deplorables' in Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.

Bernie is going to stand up there and say "What the fuck has that rich New Yorker ever done for you??  Has he improved your lot?  Are you selling more corn?  More soybeans?  Can your kids go to school?  Can you take that family vacation?   Is YOUR property value skyrocketing?   How's YOUR resort in Florida making out?  Is your healthcare more affordable?  He cut taxes for his friends.  Did he cut YOUR taxes?  They saved billions.. how about you?  How had Donald Trump made YOUR life better in the last four years?"

I think that's an argument that  will play way better than the conventional media thinks.

And Trump is going to claim "Bernie's a socialist!"

This guy is the boogie man?  And Bernie can always come back with "I may be a democratic socialist but at least I can find my own dirt on my political opponents without outsourcing it to actual communist like Putin or some dude name Igor..- beotch"

 

[ShortForBob]

I hope you're right.

Overcoming that "socialist" label is going to be a biggie though.

Bernie is a socialist and there are many many people that should be voting for better education and health for their grand kids that swallowed the Socialist = Communist bullshit every day with their cornflakes.

Bernie needs to get the young ones registered and voting.

 

[SloopJonB]

As I've listened to the various pollsters pontificate, I've changed my opinion on Bernie.

I think he can win. I think Bernie can beat Trump one on one.  I think the "socialist" label has more power in abstract than in person.

Trump loves labeling people.  And he's really good at it.  From here until November, every time Bloomberg stands in front of a podium, people are going to be looking for a box.  And what's more, the MEDIA will be talking about a box.  Fauxcahaunts, Sleepy Joe.. stupid nicknames meant to detract from the person and make them less impressive but to also give the media something to talk about.  Every time Biden has a gaff or loss of thought, he's gonna get pounded.

The problem (for Trump) is that Bernie is largely immune to that attack.  Trump says he's a socialist - yea.. BERNIE says he's a socialist.  Bernie's old?  He's Trumps age. His heart?  Anyone REALLY want to put Trump's medical records up against Bernies?

What Bernie has that armors him against Trump is sincerity.  He's got a 50 year record of saying the same thing.  He's not a flip flopper.  He's not really a particularly good politician.  People inside the beltway DON'T like him.  Hillary wasn't lying.

So.. Trump's going to run on the economy.  He's not going to get any democrats.  That's foregone.  He's going to get a lot of republicans.  That's foregone.  But what about the disaffected 'deplorables' in Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.

Bernie is going to stand up there and say "What the fuck has that rich New Yorker ever done for you??  Has he improved your lot?  Are you selling more corn?  More soybeans?  Can your kids go to school?  Can you take that family vacation?   Is YOUR property value skyrocketing?   How's YOUR resort in Florida making out?  Is your healthcare more affordable?  He cut taxes for his friends.  Did he cut YOUR taxes?  They saved billions.. how about you?  How had Donald Trump made YOUR life better in the last four years?"

I think that's an argument that  will play way better than the conventional media thinks.

And Trump is going to claim "Bernie's a socialist!"

This guy is the boogie man?  And Bernie can always come back with "I may be a democratic socialist but at least I can find my own dirt on my political opponents without outsourcing it to actual communist like Putin or some dude name Igor..- beotch"

That should be correct and I hope it is but it presupposes a level of awareness on the part of the affected voters that I just don't think is there.

Do you really think a bunch of Indiana corn farmers are going to vote for an avowed socialist?

I don't think so.

Remember, they voted for Pence as Governor and then when they weren't going to do it again they put him in Congress.

It appears to be like that all over flyover country.

Again, I hope you're right but I ain't optimistic.

 

[BeSafe]

Do you really think a bunch of Indiana corn farmers are going to vote for an avowed socialist?

I don't think they're going to vote for a socialist.  But I think they could vote for Bernie.  He's got to personalize it.

"You're not voting for a socialist - you're voting for me - and I care about you."

I think that's the best chance he has and a lane that only he can fill.

 

[SloopJonB]

Well, from your lips to God's ear.

 

[Raz'r]

Our elk will also vote for a flaming bag of dog-shit over their boy Shitstain unless that flaming bag of dog-shit is a Democrat. Then there will be much sturm und drang followed by a heavy heart.

And they will blame Democrats for forcing them to do it.